Library
Everything the Institute has published: interactive works, convening write-ups, papers, briefs, blog posts and books, newest first.
22 items
2026
- Write-upLucidoPolitics
A Constitution for the 21st Century, convening 2: Philadelphia
In the society Franklin founded, ten speakers took up three matters: who may know on the people's behalf, whose lives biotechnology may rewrite, and whether a constitution lives in its text or in the way people live.
- Write-upLucidoPolitics
A Constitution for the 21st Century, convening 1: Boston and Cambridge, Massachusetts
The series opens: some two dozen scholars and politicians ask how democratic constitutions can still be amended, and by whom, when AI, platforms and biotechnology are redistributing power.
- InteractiveLucidoHistory
Civilization in one day: Greece is not ancient
The 5,526 years since the first Sumerian cities compressed into twenty-four hours. Five scrolling parts, zooming down to a four-minute view.
- InteractiveLucidoIndex
World Lucidity Dashboard
Finance, politics, epistemics: the clarity of each domain, distilled to a single number.
- InteractiveLucidoAtlas
394 power operators, placed by four independent traits
Skill, institution-building, orientation, undistortion. How each of them ended is read from where they sit.
- PaperPublished
Lucido Ergo Sum · Lucidosophy (我明故我在)
Lucidosophy is a philosophy stated in axiomatic form.
- PaperWorking paper
When Prediction Markets Break: Composition-Driven Systemic Risk in Large-Scale Agent Simulations
Prediction markets promise to turn dispersed beliefs into useful probabilities, but that promise depends on the price-formation process remaining informative.
- BlogPMarket Arena
Arbitrage Is Capacity, Not Magic
Why correction pressure can be right in direction and still fail in size, speed, capital, or timing.
- BlogPMarket Arena
Engineering a Reproducible Market Lab
How I turn simulation runs into auditable artifacts, and why reproducibility is part of the instrument itself.
- BlogPMarket Arena
How PMarket Arena Clears a Market
Inside the browser engine that turns cohort beliefs, shocks, liquidity, and correction pressure into a live simulated price.
- BlogPMarket Arena
Interactive Simulation as a Research Interface
Why the next research interface is not only a paper, but a simulation readers can inspect, intervene in, and reuse.
- BlogPMarket Arena
Prices Against Known Truth
Why final outcome is not enough, and why a useful market lab needs a hidden truth path to judge price discovery.
- BlogPMarket Arena
PMarket Arena: A Live Laboratory for Prediction Markets
A concise project note on PMarket Arena, a browser-based simulation workbench for studying trader behavior, shocks, liquidity stress, and market convergence.
- BlogPMarket Arena
Trader Composition Is Market Structure
Why the same prediction-market price can mean wisdom, crowding, panic, or delayed correction depending on who produced it.
- BlogPMarket Arena
When Prediction Markets Break
How a prediction market can keep trading, keep moving, and still become a worse information signal.
- BlogPMarket Arena
Why I Built PMarket Arena
Why a prediction-market price is not enough, and why I built a live arena to expose the machinery behind it.
- BriefPMarket Arena template run
Arbitrage Capacity Rescue
A committed PMarket Arena template showing why correction depends on arbitrage capacity after a mispricing opens.
- BriefPMarket Arena template run
Liquidity Stress in Simulated Event Markets
A committed PMarket Arena liquidity script showing how a bad-news shock and depth withdrawal make price tracking fragile.
- BriefPMarket Arena template run
Noise Panic Tape
A committed PMarket Arena template separating noise flow, bad-news impulse, and panic participation in a calmer market.
- BriefPMarket Arena template run
Trend Crowding and Price Discovery
A committed PMarket Arena template showing how crowded trend flow can turn a small drift into a visible dislocation.
- PaperMethods companion
Building a Reproducible Simulation Stack for Population-Level Prediction Market Research
This manuscript describes the engineering design behind a reusable simulation stack for studying population-level behavior in prediction markets.
- BookLucidiTao
Lucidosophy: a philosophy of lucidity for the age of AI
The Institute's philosophical foundation: a bilingual book built from definitions, postulates and theorems.