Noise Panic Tape
A committed PMarket Arena template separating noise flow, bad-news impulse, and panic participation in a calmer market.
Question
How do noise, news, and panic participation differ when they appear in the same event-market tape?
Mechanism
Noise can lift volatility without improving tracking; bad news moves the truth path; added panic traders can amplify sell pressure and liquidity stress without necessarily creating a persistent dislocation.
Setup
- Run noise_panic_tape.json for 160 ticks with 100,000 simulated agents.
- Start from rational 58%, trend 25%, panic 5%, arbitrageur 10%, noise 2%, seed 116.
- Apply a 50-tick noise burst at tick 18, bad news at tick 44, and add 3,000 panic traders at tick 58.
Selected ticks from the committed PMarket Arena noise/panic template. The run separates noise flow, bad news, and panic participation while tracking price, truth, and stress.
Source artifact
PMarket Arena template scenarios/templates/noise_panic_tape.json, run through the Node calibration harness for 160 ticks.
160
Rows
0.156
Max dev
28.8%
High error
48 ticks
Stressed
0 ticks
Dislocated
10.67 ticks
Recovery
Result
The template run retained 160 rows, reached max deviation of 0.156, and spent 48 ticks in stressed state with 0 dislocated ticks. Event recovery measured 10.67 ticks, while final error was -0.119.
Boundary
This browser-template run separates tape mechanisms in a synthetic market. It is not evidence about a live venue, a panic threshold estimate, or a calibrated claim about real participant behavior.
Real Market Context
Under self-certification, market integrity rests on post-listing surveillance rather than pre-approval (17 CFR Part 40). Separating noise, news, and panic in the tape — what this run does — is the same discrimination a surveillance regime must perform to tell ordinary volatility from manipulation.
17 CFR Part 40→