文库
研究院发表的全部内容：交互作品、会议评述、论文、简报、博客与书，按时间倒序排列。
共 22 项
2026
- 会议评述LucidoPolitics
21 世纪的宪法 · 第 2 场：费城
在富兰克林创立的学会里，十位讲者讨论三件事：谁有权替人民去知道，生物技术可以改写谁的生命，宪法活在文本里还是活在人们的生活里。
- 会议评述LucidoPolitics
21 世纪的宪法 · 第 1 场：波士顿与剑桥（马萨诸塞州）
系列首场：二十多位学者与政治人物讨论，在人工智能、平台与生物技术改变权力分配的时代，民主宪法还能怎样被修改、由谁来修改。
- 交互LucidoHistory
文明的一天：希腊并不古老
把苏美尔第一批城市到今天的 5526 年压成二十四小时。五卷滚动叙事，一路收到四分钟的视野。
- 交互LucidoIndex
全球明晰度仪表盘
金融、政治、认知：每个领域的明晰程度，化为一个数字。
- 交互LucidoAtlas
394 位权力操作者，由四种独立特质定位
术、建制力、朝向、无蔽。善终与否，从他们所在的位置里读出。
- 论文Published
Lucido Ergo Sum · Lucidosophy (我明故我在)
Lucidosophy is a philosophy stated in axiomatic form.
- 论文Working paper
When Prediction Markets Break: Composition-Driven Systemic Risk in Large-Scale Agent Simulations
Prediction markets promise to turn dispersed beliefs into useful probabilities, but that promise depends on the price-formation process remaining informative.
- 博客PMarket Arena
Arbitrage Is Capacity, Not Magic
Why correction pressure can be right in direction and still fail in size, speed, capital, or timing.
- 博客PMarket Arena
Engineering a Reproducible Market Lab
How I turn simulation runs into auditable artifacts, and why reproducibility is part of the instrument itself.
- 博客PMarket Arena
How PMarket Arena Clears a Market
Inside the browser engine that turns cohort beliefs, shocks, liquidity, and correction pressure into a live simulated price.
- 博客PMarket Arena
Interactive Simulation as a Research Interface
Why the next research interface is not only a paper, but a simulation readers can inspect, intervene in, and reuse.
- 博客PMarket Arena
Prices Against Known Truth
Why final outcome is not enough, and why a useful market lab needs a hidden truth path to judge price discovery.
- 博客PMarket Arena
PMarket Arena: A Live Laboratory for Prediction Markets
A concise project note on PMarket Arena, a browser-based simulation workbench for studying trader behavior, shocks, liquidity stress, and market convergence.
- 博客PMarket Arena
Trader Composition Is Market Structure
Why the same prediction-market price can mean wisdom, crowding, panic, or delayed correction depending on who produced it.
- 博客PMarket Arena
When Prediction Markets Break
How a prediction market can keep trading, keep moving, and still become a worse information signal.
- 博客PMarket Arena
Why I Built PMarket Arena
Why a prediction-market price is not enough, and why I built a live arena to expose the machinery behind it.
- 简报PMarket Arena template run
Arbitrage Capacity Rescue
A committed PMarket Arena template showing why correction depends on arbitrage capacity after a mispricing opens.
- 简报PMarket Arena template run
Liquidity Stress in Simulated Event Markets
A committed PMarket Arena liquidity script showing how a bad-news shock and depth withdrawal make price tracking fragile.
- 简报PMarket Arena template run
Noise Panic Tape
A committed PMarket Arena template separating noise flow, bad-news impulse, and panic participation in a calmer market.
- 简报PMarket Arena template run
Trend Crowding and Price Discovery
A committed PMarket Arena template showing how crowded trend flow can turn a small drift into a visible dislocation.
- 论文Methods companion
Building a Reproducible Simulation Stack for Population-Level Prediction Market Research
This manuscript describes the engineering design behind a reusable simulation stack for studying population-level behavior in prediction markets.
- 书LucidiTao
明在哲学：AI 时代的存在哲学
研究院的哲学根基。中英双语母卷，由定义、公设与定理构成。